EUR/USD
Current Quote: 1.1378
BEARISH
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
EUR/USD closed at 1.1378 in the Monday 28/09/2026 session (ECB/Frankfurter reference rate; Monday desk edition — the logged-in MT5 terminal still returns no FX data), down -0.22% — a -0.71% week with the post-FOMC sequence intact: from 1.1460 (Sep 18) to 1.1378, the differential remains the dollar's raw material (Fed at 3.75-4.00% with one more hike signaled against an ECB frozen at 2.50%). The book collected on the week: the Sep-14 breakout runner closed at target — the Sep-23 close (1.1411) crossed the 1.1440 target and the ticket banked +2.09R, the public ledger's first target — and the Sep-19 continuation ticket triggered in the same session (entry 1.1411 under the 10-day low 1.1460), now running +0.37R toward 1.1350 with the 1.1500 stop untouched. Price sits 11 pips above the 10/20-day low (1.1367, printed Thursday), with the 9-month low (1.1340) as the next floor. Full bear alignment (close under the SMA200 1.1621, 50-day 1.1535 below it). Indicators (SMA 50/200, sigma20, Donchian and Fibonacci) computed from the ECB/Frankfurter daily series (551 sessions, 01/08/2024 to 28/09/2026).
2. Technical Architecture (Daily/Weekly Chart)
Main Trend
Four down closes in six sessions under the SMA200 (1.1621) with the 50-day (1.1535) below it — full bear alignment and no reversal in sight: 10/20-day lows at 1.1367 and the runner opened on Sep 23 pulling price toward the 9-month low (1.1340).
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support: 1.1367 (the 10/20-day low, printed Thursday), with the 9-month low (1.1340) and the 1.1300 round beneath.
Nearest Macro Resistance: 1.1476 (the 78.6% Fib + the handed-back 1.1455-1.1500 shelf), with the 50-day SMA (1.1535) and the 10-day high (1.1539) above.
Price Action Behavior
Continuation-by-pullback setup (additive to the working runner): the trigger is a daily close inside the handed-back 1.1455-1.1500 shelf (78.6% Fib 1.1476 + the round + the delivered lows) followed by a close below the previous close and below the 1.1478 zone midpoint — entry reference 1.1475, stop 1.1520 (45 pips over the zone top, >= the ~43-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor), target 1.1350 (125 pips, the round just above the 9-month low 1.1340), crossing only the 1.1400 round. A close back over 1.1520 cancels the map. The runner (entered 1.1411 at the Sep-23 close, stop 1.1500, target 1.1350) keeps working at +0.37R.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
TICKET · EUR/USD · 28·09·26
SELL (SHORT) ON PULLBACK
R : R
1:2.78
Entry Trigger
Daily close inside the 1.1455-1.1500 shelf followed by a close below the previous close and below the 1.1478 midpoint — entry reference 1.1475. Valid through the 02/10 close; no top-tier event inside the window (next US CPI ≈13/10).
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
1.1520 (over the 1.1500 zone top and round; 45 pips >= the ~43-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor) · suggested risk ≤ 1% per trade.
Take Profit (Target)
1.1350 (125 pips, the round just above the 9-month low 1.1340), with only the 1.1400 round on the way.
Final Justification
The week paid the map at the counter and gave change: the Sep-14 runner closed at target for +2.09R and the Sep-19 continuation already runs at +0.37R — the Fed-ECB differential keeps funding the dollar and the structure keeps handing over lows. The rule now asks for the pullback: chasing 11 pips above the 10-day low is paying the runner's worst price; the handed-back 1.1455-1.1500 shelf (78.6% Fib + the round + the delivered lows) returns the entry with a 45-pip structural stop cleared by the volatility floor and 1:2.78 to the round above the 9-month low, crossing only 1.1400. An additive position to the runner — and it only exists if the pullback delivers the close.